June 2021 Senedd election

From MHoC Wiki
Jump to navigation Jump to search
June 2021 Senedd election
← December 2020 4 June 2021 Next →

All 60 seats to the Senedd Cymru
31 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout59.5%
  First party Second party Third party
  Bitch i'm a cow.png Imadearedditaccount portrait.png Peter Capaldi by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Leader Chi0121 model-avery RhysGwenythIV
Party Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats
Leader's seat Arfon Preseli Pembrokeshire Caerphilly
Last election 15 seats 16 seats 5 seats
Seats before 23 16 5
Seats won 15 17 12
Seat change Decrease 8 Increase 1 Increase 7
Popular vote 366,719 366,201 273,424
Percentage 27.4% 27.3% 20.4%
Swing Increase 4.0% Decrease 0.5% Increase 10.0%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  AlunMichael crop.jpg Pedro Sánchez in 2020.jpg Eugenie Sage 2018 (cropped).jpg
Leader Miraiwae JJRoamer Aberteifi
Party Plaid Cymru Democrats Healthcare Advocates
Leader's seat Cardiff West North Wales Mid and West Wales (lost)
Last election 12 seats[a] 3 seats[b] Did not contest
Seats before 11 3 Outside parliament
Seats won 11 5 0
Seat change Steady Increase 2 Steady
Popular vote 230,774 83,314 20,092
Percentage 17.2% 6.2% 1.5%
Swing Decrease 3.5% Increase 2.3% Increase 1.5%

First Minister before election

model-avery
Labour

Elected First Minister

TBD
TBD

The June 2021 Senedd election was held on 4 June 2021 to elect 60 members to the Senedd Cymru.[1] Welsh Labour, the leading governing party before the election slightly decreased their vote, but won an additional seat. The opposition Welsh Conservatives managed to win a narrow plurality of votes, despite winning less seats than Labour, while the Welsh Liberal Democrats more than doubled their vote, winning a total of 12 seats. Plaid Cymru suffered a slight swing against them, losing 3.5% when considering both Plaid Cymru's vote and all the parties last election that have since merged into Plaid. Democratiaid Cymru, who contested as the Welsh Progressives at the last election, managed to increase their vote, winning a seat in each region. The extraparliamentary Cardigan Community Healthcare Advocates Party did not manage to win a seat, but won 1.5% of the vote across Wales.

Background

Following the December 2020 Senedd election, a "government of national unity" was formed, led by independent MS Greejatus, who won 32 votes in the First Minister election from the Conservatives, Libertarians, Liberal Democrats and Welsh Workers' Party.[2][3] After the merger of Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Greens, the Greens' sole MS antier refused to join, sitting as a "Green independent".[4] On 29 January 2021, First Minister Greejatus joined the Libertarian Party UK. He remained First Minister. [5] After suffering from chronic ligma,[6] First Minister Greejatus resigned on 17 April 2021.[7] This lead to his seat being vacated, as well as the seat of antier, who had consistently failed to turn up to Senedd divisions, reducing the size of the Senedd to 58.[8] The Welsh Workers Party also left the government as a result.

The resulting First Minister election was won by model-avery, with the support of Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Workers' Party.[9] After the dissolution of the Libertarian Party Cymru, the Welsh Conservatives recieved all 8 Libertarian seats in the Senedd. On 27 April 2021, the Cardigan Community Healthcare Advocates Party was formed, with the goal of reopening Cardigan Hospital.[10] On 27 May 2021, the Welsh Workers Party and Democratiaid Cymru merged.[11]

Electoral system

There are 5 regions contested as multi-member constituencies using the D'Hondt system, with each party nominating one candidate for each region. There are 12 seats in each region. MPs will take up either an FPTP seat (more common for major parties) with an example being model-avery's seat of Preseli Pembrokeshire (located in the Mid and West Wales region), or a list seat (more common for minor parties) with an example being Skullduggery12, who took a list seat in South Wales East.

Parties and candidates contesting the election

The close of nominations was on 28 May 2021, and the official list of nominations was released shortly after.[12] 7 political parties contested this election, down from 9 in June 2020. Below is a table of candidates.[13]

Region Conservative Labour Liberal
Democrats
Plaid Cymru Democrats Healthcare
Advocates
Mid and West Wales Chi0121 model-avery Notbestofbest chainchompsky1 Muffin5136 Aberteifi
North Wales model-willem Lady_Aya rea-wakey later_slater1407_ JJRoamer model-putrid
South Wales Central Sir_Myself Its_Mr_Rose BossleyGaming Miraiwae SomeBritishDude26
South Wales East Skullduggery12 model-kyosanto RhysGwenythIV LeftyWalrus KalvinLokan
South Wales West BrexitGlory Inadorable scubaguy194 ARichTeaBiscuit Rohanite272 SpectacularSalad

Debates

There were 2 debates held. The first was a forum style debate from 30 May to 3 June, where the 6 party leaders were invited to take questions from members of the public. The second was a live debate with 3 party representatives in attendance.

June 2021 Senedd election debates
Date scheduled Organisers Moderator  P  Present[c]    S  Surrogate[d]    NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee 
Conservatives Labour Liberal
Democrats
Plaid Cymru Democrats Healthcare
Advocates
Ref.
30 May-3 June Devolved Speaker Borednerdygamer P
Chi0121
P
model-avery
P
RhysGwenythIV
P
Miraiwae
P
JJRoamer
P
Aberteifi
[14]
3 June Model News Network Jay Winterbourne A
Chi0121
NI NI P
Miraiwae
S
SomeBritishDude26
S
model-putrid
[15]

Opinion polling

Graphical summary

The chart below depicts regional vote opinion polls conducted for the June 2021 Senedd election.

Senedd party polling 7 June 2021.png

Regional vote

Pollster Client(s) Date(s)
conducted
Sample
size
Conservatives Labour Liberal
Democrats
Plaid
Cymru
Democrats Healthcare
Advocates
Libertarian Workers[e] WNP Other Lead
June 2021 Senedd election 4 June 2021 27.4% 27.3% 20.4% 17.3% 6.2% 1.5% 0.1%
YouGov BBC Cymru 27 May 2021 1,121 28.8% 31.1% 22.9% 13.1% 3.0% 0.6% 2.3%
YouGov BBC Cymru 30 April 2021 1,005 19.1% 25.8% 19.0% 14.1% 0.7% 19.5% 1.3% 6.3%
YouGov South Wales Echo 2 April 2021 1,025 17.4% 19.6% 15.9% 10.9% 34.5% 1.2% 0.4%[f] 14.9%
YouGov BBC Cymru 2 March 2021 1,097 19.4% 24.4% 12.4% 12.9% 24.5% 1.7% 4.3% 0.1%
YouGov WalesOnline 2 February 2021 1,092 19.9% 25.8% 10.2% 17.6% 17.6% 2.5% 5.6% 5.9%
December 2020 Senedd election 3 December 2020 23.4% 27.8% 10.4% 17.3% 12.7% 3.9% 1.6% 2.8%[g] 4.4%

Predictions

Regional vote

Publisher Conservatives Labour Liberal
Democrats
Plaid
Cymru
Democrats Healthcare
Advocates
Lead
June 2021 Senedd Election 27.4% 27.3% 20.4% 17.3% 6.2% 1.5% 0.1%
Tivyside Advertiser 28.15% 28.17% 19.67% 16.05% 5.37% 2.59% 0.02%
Morning Star 30.4% 31.5% 17.9% 16.7% 3.3% 0.4% 1.1%

Seat predictions

Publisher Conservatives Labour Liberal
Democrats
Plaid
Cymru
Democrats Healthcare
Advocates
June 2021 Senedd Election 15 17 12 11 5 0
Tivyside Advertiser 17 17 12 9 4 1
Morning Star 19 20 10 10 1 0

Results

The change in result for Democratiaid Cymru is calculated using Welsh Progressive results from the December 2020 election. The change in result for Plaid Cymru includes the December 2020 result for the Welsh National Party and the Welsh Greens.

e • d 
Parties Votes % ± Seats ±
Conservatives 366,719 27.4% Increase 4.0% 15 Decrease 8
Labour 366,201 27.3% Decrease 0.5% 17 Increase 1
Liberal Democrats 273,424 20.4% Increase 10.0% 12 Increase 7
Plaid Cymru 230,774 17.2% Decrease 3.5% 11 Steady
Democrats 83,314 6.2% Increase 2.3% 5 Increase 2
Healthcare Advocates 20,092 1.5% Increase 1.5% 0 Steady
Total 1,340,524[16] 60

Mid and West Wales

December 2020 Senedd election: Mid and West Wales[16][13]
Party Candidate Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
Conservatives Chi0121 3 -1 71,154 25.7% -2.7%
Liberal Democrats Notbestofbest 3 +1 68,170 24.6% +5.9%
Labour model-avery 3 +2 62,124 22.5% +10.8%
Plaid Cymru chainchompsky1 2 -1 52,481 19.0% -7.8%
Democrats Muffin5136 1 ±0 15,934 5.8% -2.3%
Healthcare Advocates Aberteifi 0 ±0 6,762 2.4% +2.4%

North Wales

December 2020 Senedd election: North Wales[16][13]
Party Candidate Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
Conservatives model-willem 3 +1 67,606 23.6% +4.4%
Liberal Democrats rea-wakey 3 +2 66,976 23.4% +10.8%
Labour Lady_Aya 3 ±0 64,441 22.5% -2.0%
Plaid Cymru later_slater1407_ 3 ±0 18,470 21.0% -3.1%
Democrats JJRoamer 1 ±0 18,470 6.5% +1.2%
Healthcare Advocates model-putrid 0 ±0 8,292 2.9% +2.9%

South Wales Central

December 2020 Senedd election: South Wales Central[16][13]
Party Candidate Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
Labour Its_Mr_Rose 4 ±0 89,925 32.7% -0.7%
Conservatives Sir_Myself 3 ±0 78,325 28.5% -6.7%
Liberal Democrats BossleyGaming 2 +1 50,714 18.4% +8.7%
Plaid Cymru Miraiwae 2 ±0 37,643 13.7% -2.9%
Democrats SomeBritishDude26 1 +1 18,617 6.8% +6.8%

South Wales East

December 2020 Senedd election: South Wales East[16][13]
Party Candidate Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
Labour model-kyosanto 4 -1 90,513 30.2% -7.0%
Conservatives Skullduggery12 3 ±0 87,032 29.0% +2.1%
Plaid Cymru LeftyWalrus 2 ±0 52,207 17.4% -0.7%
Liberal Democrats RhysGwenythIV 2 +2 51,126 17.0% +13.7%
Democrats KalvinLokan 1 ±0 19,233 6.4% -1.3%

South Wales West

December 2020 Senedd election: South Wales West[16][13]
Party Candidate Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
Conservatives BrexitGlory 3 ±0 62,602 30.9% +8.4%
Labour Inadorable 3 ±0 59,198 29.2% ±0.0%
Liberal Democrats scubaguy194 2 +1 36,438 18.0% +9.2%
Plaid Cymru ARichTeaBiscuit 2 ±0 28,276 14.0% -5.2%
Democrats Rohanite272 1 +1 11,060 5.5% +5.5%
Healthcare Advocates SpectacularSalad 0 ±0 5,038 2.5% +2.5%

References

  1. https://www.reddit.com/r/MHOCMeta/comments/n75b09/notice_of_poll_10th_northern_ireland_assembly/
  2. https://www.reddit.com/r/MHOCSenedd/comments/kywnyw/first_minister_election_x_round_2_results/
  3. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1w4N4SZ5CNrk8aThAGTH3AccdC6Ft_6IjIXfWtiPY4Gg/edit
  4. https://www.reddit.com/r/MHOCSenedd/comments/kzwk71/ministerial_statement_programme_for_government/gjtbyby/
  5. https://www.reddit.com/r/MHOC/comments/kn3nbm/join_a_party/glakluf/
  6. https://www.reddit.com/r/MHOCPress/comments/n2ux7b/the_cardigan_community_healthcare_advocates_party/?
  7. https://www.reddit.com/r/MHOCMeta/comments/msgcc7/toxicity_over_the_last_few_days_ban_announcements/
  8. https://discord.com/channels/521998785711308809/795264667198554142/832947348333133834
  9. https://www.reddit.com/r/MHOCSenedd/comments/n2r4zf/first_minister_election_xi_results/
  10. https://www.reddit.com/r/MHOCPress/comments/mzxymg/uaberteifi_announces_the_formation_of_the/
  11. http://web.archive.org/web/20210528000205/https://www.canva.com/design/DAEdbCD_CGI/8kp-AtoUWuWEZBk9e---Dg/view?website
  12. https://www.reddit.com/r/MHOCMeta/comments/n75b09/notice_of_poll_10th_northern_ireland_assembly/
  13. 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NWnzUPNfCO0dc3ySJdediro6Qk7VpOTL5ggxZcKejAo/edit#gid=1674083639
  14. https://www.reddit.com/r/MHOCSenedd/comments/nomycx/wpvi_party_leaders_independent_candidates_debate/
  15. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgRDQhB0huE
  16. 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lvcCoazdNnNetFAzxZA3w-TX7CEK2DVgjte0saSwY_c/edit?usp=sharing
  1. Combined performance of Plaid Cymru, the Welsh Greens, and the Welsh National Party, the latter two having merged into Plaid Cymru.
  2. As the Welsh Progressives.
  3. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  4. Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  5. Was Welsh Progressives from December 2020 to January 2021.
  6. Including Llaisiau dros Ewrop on 0.4%.
  7. Including Welsh Greens on 1.8%, Free Shetland Wales on 0.1% and independents on 0.9%.

External links

Party manifestos